THIRTY YEARS TREND OF RHEUMATIC HEART DISEASES, PAKISTAN CHAPTER: INSIGHTS FROM THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE STUDY

Abstract

Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the 30 years (1990 to 2019) trends of rheumatic heart diseases (RHD) in terms of estimated prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Pakistan.

Methodology: This ecological study consisted of an analysis of data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study, which consisted of 30 years (from 1990 to 2019) trend of RHD for Pakistan in terms of prevalence, DALYs, and deaths in terms of the estimated number of cased and age-standardized rate (ASR) per 100,000 population.

Results: The prevalence of RHD has shown a 134.1% increase from 705,795 [535866.8-888749] to 1,652,438 [1261501.8-2090104.2] in 1990 to 2019 with an IRR of 1.029 [1.027-1.030]. The ASR per 100,000 population has also shown a 17.9% increase with an IRR of 1.005 [1.003-1.006]. The estimated number of deaths has shown a 39.1% increase from 15,199 [11398.2-20008] to 21,137 [15639.5-27308.1] in 1990 to 2019 with an IRR of 1.008 [0.979-1.037]. However, the ASR per 100,000 population has shown 30.0% decline with IRR of 0.984 [0.981-0.988]. Similarly, the estimated number of DALYs has shown a 57.4% increase with an IRR of 1.012 [1.009-1.015]. However, the ASR per 100,000 population has shown 20.7% decline with IRR of 0.989 [0.986-0.992].

Conclusion: The prevalence, DALYs, and deaths due to RHD in Pakistan have increased in the past 30 year’s period with a significant per year percentage increase. However, age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate per 100,000 population have shown a significant per year percentage decline.